= suggested by clients.

Views expressed herein are those of the authors, not of Trend Macrolytics LLC or its principals.

• Is Italy going to make it?
  Nicola Borri, Gianfranco di Vaio, Giuseppe Ragusa
  VoxEU
  February 4, 2012

• The coming resolution of the European crisis
  Fred Bergsten, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
  VoxEU
  January 26, 2012
• Tax Rates on Capital Gains
  Roberton Williams
  Tax Notes
  January 25, 2012
• Why expect S&P, Moody’s, or Fitch to know it's junk when expert musicians can't tell a Stradivarius from a fiddle?
  Victor Ginsburgh
  VoxEU
  January 16, 2012

• The Nonbank-Bank Nexus and the Shadow Banking System
  Zoltan Pozsar and Manmohan Singh
  IMF Working Paper
  December 2011

• The next strategic target: De Gaulle’s EU legacy
  Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
  VoxEU
  November 30, 2011

• Target2 debate – The ECB finally gets involved
  Olaf Storbeck
  Economics Intelligence
  October 14, 2011

• What caused the recession of 1937-38?
  Douglas Irwin
  VoxEU
  September 11, 2011

• Risk Off
  Andrew Haldane
  Bank of England
  August 18, 2011

• On the Chinese house-price bubble
  Christian Dreger Yanqun Zhang
  VoxEU
  July 15 2011

• The fear of contagion in Europe
  Paolo Manasse and Giulio Trigilia
  VoxEU
  July 6, 2011

• Quantitative Easing (QE) Conference
  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
  June 30, 2011
  • Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve: Did They Work?
    Matthew Raskin, Joseph Gagnon, Julie Remache and Brian Sack
  • The Large-Scale Asset Purchases Had Large International Effects
    Christopher J. Neely
  • Flow and Stock Effects of Large-Scale Treasury Purchases
    Thomas B. King and Stefania D’Amico

• The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Public Sector Jobs Saved, Private Sector Jobs Forestalled
  Timothy Conley and Bill Dupor
  May 12, 2011

• A Trichet Plan for the Eurozone
  Peter Allen and Gary Evans
  VoxEU, April 24, 2011

• What are the implications of rising commodity prices for inflation and monetary policy?
  Charles L. Evans and Jonas D. M. Fisher
  Chicago Fed Letter, May 2011

• Activism
  Alan Greenspan
  Council on Foreign Relations International Finance 2011
  March 15, 2011
• Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic
  John H. Cochrane
  European Economic Review 55 (2011) 2-30
• Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth
  Eduardo A. Cavallo, Sebastian Galiani, Ilan Noy and Juan Pantano
  Interamerican Development Bank Working Paper Series
  June, 2010
• Pact for the euro: Tough talk, soft conditions?
  Daniel Gros
  VoxEU
  March 14, 2011

• Farewell to cheap capital? The implications of long-term shifts in global investment and saving
  McKinsey Global Institue
  December, 2010
• Egypt's Economic Apartheid
  Hernando de Soto
  Wall Street Journal
  February 3, 2011

• Historical Evidence on the Benefits of Rules-Based Economic Policies
  John B. Taylor
  American Economics Association and the American Finance Association January 7, 2011
• What Does the Change in the FOMC’s Statement of Objectives Mean?
  Daniel Thornton
  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, Number 1

• The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08: Is it Unprecedented?
  Michael D. Bordo and John S. Landon-Lane
  NBER Working Paper No. 16589
  December 2010
• A Flaw in the Model…That Defines How the World Works
  Volker Bieta, Hellmuth Milde and Nadine Weber
  The World Bank, IDA Resource Mobilization
  December 2010
• The seniority conundrum: Bail out countries but bail in private, short-term creditors?
  Daniel Gros
  VoxEU
  December 5, 2010
• Fiscal Commission Report:Too Much Taxes, Not Enough Spending Cuts
  Brian M. Riedl
  Heritage Foundation WebMemo 3071
  December 3, 2010

• There's No Escaping Hauser's Law
  W. Kurt Hauser
  The Wall Street Journal
  November 26, 2010
• What The Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package
  John Cogan and John Taylor
  Working Paper
  October 2010

• Geithner's Global Central Planning
  John Cochrane
  Wall Street Journal
  October 26, 2010
• U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the 1930s
  Price V. Fishback
  NBER Working Paper No. 16477
  October 2010
• The Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides Nobel: Search and market frictions
  Barbara Petrongolo
  VoxEU
  October 15, 2010
• The Potential Impact of Expiring Tax Cuts on Low-Income Taxpayers
  Nick Kasprak
  Fiscal Fact No. 250, October 7, 2010

• Culture, Institutions and the Wealth of Nations
  Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gérard Roland
  CEPR Discussion Paper 8013, September 2010
• A Profile of the High-Income Taxpayers in the Middle of the Tax Cut Debate
  Tax Foundation's Data Analysis Division
  Fiscal Fact No. 247, September 22, 2010
• Uniqueness or Similarity? Japan’s Post-Bubble Experience in Monetary Policy Studies
  Masaaki Shirakawa
  Second IJCB Fall Conference, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan
  September 16, 2010
• Principles for Economic Revival
  George P. Shultz, Michael J. Boskin, John F. Cogan, Allan Meltzer And John B. Taylor
  Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2010
• The Small Business The 97% Fallacy
  Kevin Hasset and Alan D. Viard
  Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2010

• Seven Faces of The Peril
  James Bullard
  Preprint, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review
  September-October Issue
  • The Perils of Taylor Rules
    Jess Benhabib, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martin Uribe
    Journal of Economic Theory 96, 2001
• The Information Value of the Stress Test and Bank Opacity
  Stavros Peristiani, Donald P. Morgan and Vanessa Savino
  Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report no. 460
  July 2010
• Disasters, recoveries, and the equity premium
  Robert Barro, Emi Nakamura, Jón Steinsson and Jose F. Ursua
  VoxEU
  July 8, 2010
• The Bush Tax Cuts and the Deficit Myth
  Brian Riedl
  The Wall Street Journal
  July 13, 2010
• The Political Economy of the Subprime Mortgage Credit Expansion
  Atif R. Mian, Amir Sufi and Francesco Trebbi
  Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 10-21
  June 9, 2010

• Crisis Economics
  N. Gregory Mankiw
  National Affairs
  Summer 2010
• Economics is Hard. Don’t Let Bloggers Tell You Otherwise
  Kartik Athreya
  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
  June 17, 2010
• Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
  Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia
  IMF Working Paper 10/146
  June 1, 2010
• The Fed’s Exit Strategy for Monetary Policy
  Glenn D. Rudebusch
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter
  June 14, 2010
• How California’s Public Pension System Broke (and How to Fix It)
  Adam B. Summers
  Reason Foundation
  June 2010

• Causes of the Financial Crisis
  Mark Jickling
  Congressional Research Service
  April 9, 2010
• Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?
  Lauren Cohen, Joshua Coval and Christopher Malloy
  Harvard Business School
  March 16,2010
• Calling Recessions in Real Time
  James D. Hamilton
  University of California, San Diego
  May 13, 2010

• Is Greece different? Adjustment difficulties in southern Europe
  Alcidi Cinzia and Daniel Gros
  VoxEU
  April 22, 2010
• The US-Sino Currency Dispute: New Insights from Economics, Politics, and Law
  Edited by Simon J. Evenett
  VoxEU and CEPR
  April, 2010
• Health Care Reform: How Much Does It Redistribute Income?
  by Patrick Fleenor and Gerald Prante
  Tax Foundation Fiscal Facts
  April 15, 2010
• The Housing Drag on Core Inflation
  Bart Hobijn, Stefano Eusepi and Andrea Tambalotti
  San Francisco Fed Economic Letter
  April 5, 2010

• The Story of the CDO Market Meltdown: An Empirical Analysis
  Anna Katherine Barnett-Hart
  Thesis, Harvard College
  March 19, 2009
• Timeline of Tax Provisions in the House Health Care Bill
  Tax Foundation
  March 21, 2010
• How to compete and grow: A sector guide to policy
  McKinsey Global Institute
  March 2010

• Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls
  Jonathan D. Ostry, Atish R. Ghosh, Karl Habermeier, Marcos Chamon, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Dennis B.S. Reinhardt
  IMF Staff Position Note
  February 19, 2010
• Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy
  Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Paolo Mauro
  IMF Staff Position Note
  February 12, 2010
• How inflation can destroy shareholder value
  Marc Goedhart, Timothy M. Koller, and David Wessels
  McKinsey Quarterly
  February, 2010

• The Fed's Anti-Inflation Exit Strategy Will Fail
  Allan H. Meltzer
  Wall Street Journal
  January 27, 2010
• Housing, depressions and credit collapses
  Vernon L. Smith and Steven Gjerstad
  Financial Times Economists Forum
  January 24, 2010
• Analysing the impact of the Fed’s mortgage-backed securities purchase
  Johannes Stroebel and John Taylor
  VoxEu
  January 27, 2010

• Why Are Banks Holding So Many Excess Reserves?
  Todd Keister and James J. McAndrews, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, New York Fed, December 2009
• The predictive power of Google data: New evidence on US unemployment
  Francesco D'Amuri Juri Marcucci
  VoxEu
  December 14, 2009
• The World Needs Further Monetary Ease, Not an Early Exit
  Joseph E. Gagnon
  Peterson Institute for International Economics
  December 2009

• Sudden Financial Arrest
  Ricardo J. Caballero
  November 2, 2009
• The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response
  Patrick McGuire and Götz von Peter
  October 2009
• Paulson’s Gift
  Pietro Veronesi and Luigi Zingales
  October, 2009
• The Constitutionalization of Money
  James M. Buchanan
  May 12, 2009

• Has the Rise in American Inequality Been Exaggerated?
  Robert J. Gordon
  August 28, 2009
• Growing Up in a Recession: Beliefs and the Macroeconomy
  Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo
  Institute for the Study of Labor Working Papers Series
  August, 2009

• Cost of State Regulations on California Small Business Study
  Sanjay B. Varshney and Dennis H. Tootelian
  September, 2009
• Broken Promises: a G20 Summit Report
  Global Trade Alert
  September 18, 2009
• "Why did Paul Krugman get it so wrong?"
  John H. Cochrane
  University of Chicago website, September 10 2009.
• "The story from the inside"
  David Blanchflower
  New Statesman, September 10, 2009
• "Misdiagnosing the crisis: The real problem was not real, it was nominal"
  Scott Sumner
  VoexEU, September 10, 2009
• "The crisis and citizens’ trust in central banks"
  Daniel Gros and Felix Roth
  Vix EU, September 10, 2009

• "How Will Unemployment Fare Following the Recession?"
  Edward S. Knotek II and Stephen Terry
  Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Third Quarter 2009
• In Fed We Trust
  David Wessel
  Crown Business, 2009

• "Oh, the Economics You'll Find in Dr. Seuss!"
  Ben Miller and Michael Watts
  Purdue University, March 12, 2009
• The Road Ahead for the Fed
  John Ciorciari and John B. Taylor, editors
  Hoover Institution Press, 2009
• "Why foreign exchange transactions did not freeze up during the global financial crisis: The role of the CLS Bank"
  Richard M. Levich
  VoxEU, July 10, 2009
• "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect"
  Charles Calomiris, Stanley D. Longhofer and William Miles
  NBER Working Paper No. 15075, June 2009
• Platt on Working at Wal-Mart
  Charles Platt
  Econtalk, June 15, 2009
• "Fly on the Wal"
  Charles Platt
  New York Post, February 7, 2009

• "Defining Deviancy"
  Kevin Warsh
  Institute of International Bankers Annual Meeting, June 17, 2009
• "Jobless Recovery Redux?"
  Mary Daly, Bart Hobijn and Joyce Kwok
  FRBSF Economic Letter, June 5, 2009
• "Why is Japan so heavily affected by the global economic crisis? An analysis based on the Asian international input-output tables"
  Kyoji Fukao and Tangjun Yuan
  VoxEU, June 8, 2009
• Epstein on the Rule of Law
  Richard Epstein
  Econtalk, June 1, 2009

• Getting Off Track
  John B. Taylor
  Hoover Institution Press, 2009
• "Green shoot or dead twig: Can unemployment claims predict the end of the American recession?"
  Robert Gordon
  VoxEU, May 1, 2009
• Economic Patterns and Stories
  Edward E. Leamer
  Springer, 2008

• "The Financial Crisis: An Inside View"
  Phillip Swagel
  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2009
• "Why Capital Structure Matters"
  Michael Milken
  Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2009
• "It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative"
  N. Gregory Mankiw
  New York Times, April 19, 2009
• "The Panic of 2008"
  Kevin Warsh
  Council of Institutional Investors 2009 Spring Meeting, April 6, 2009
• "The 'Great Recession' as the Institutional and Ideological Residue of the Great Depression"
  Steven Horwitz
  Symposium on the Economy in Crisis: Causes and Cures, Georgia State University, March 18, 2009

• "A (Mostly) Private Capital Assistance Programme"
  Ricardo Caballero
  VoxEU, March 17, 2009
• "The Obama Rosetta Stone"
  Daniel Henninger
  Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2009
• 'The Global Banking Community Had a Heart Attack'
  Interview with Bryan Marsal
  Spiegel Online, March 13, 2009
• Too Big Has Failed
  Thomas M. Hoenig
  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, March 6, 2009
• The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics
  David Colander, Hans Föllmer et al.
  Dahlem Workshop, November 17, 2008

• How to Lift a Falling Economy
  Ricardo J. Caballero
  Washington Post, February 22, 2009
• Late Change in Course Hobbled Rollout of Geithner's Bank Plan
  Neil Irwin and Binyamin Appelbaum
  Washington Post, February 17, 2009
• How To Make TARP II Work
  Lucian Arye Bebchuk
  Harvard University, February 12, 2009
• The Collapse of a Country
  Jon Danielsson and Gylfi Zoega
  Author's London School of Economics web site, February 9, 2009
• Financial Stability in Iceland
  Frederic S. Mishkin and Tryggvi T. Herbertsson
  Iceland Chamber of Commerce, May 2006
• The Financial Trust Index
  Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales
  Index web site, January 27, 2009

• Let's Stimulate Private Risk Taking
  by Alberto Alesina and Luigi Zingales
  Wall Street Journal, January 21, 2009
• Animal Spirits Depend on Trust  
  by Robert Shiller
  Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2009
• Fiscal Stimulus, Fiscal Inflation, or Fiscal Fallacies?
  by John Cochrane
  Author's University of Chicago Booth School website, January 15, 2009
• A Global Perspective on the Great Financial Insurance Run: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions by Ricardo Caballero
  Author's MIT website, January 20, 2009