CNBC The Kudlow Report Friday, January 27, 2012
		CNBC The Kudlow Report Tuesday, January 24, 2012
		BUSINESS INSIDER 6 TOP ECONOMISTS ANSWER: Is The Euro Crisis Over? And If Not, What's Next? January 23, 2012 The existential crisis for the euro is largely over -- baring any political shocks, for example, like Marine LePen winning the next French presidentail election (highly unlikely). However, just because the existential crisis is over, does not mean there will be no more systemic risks coming from the euro area. The banking system is going to continue on life support from the ECB. The sovereign debt issue has gone nowhere. Each new round of austerity risks a stronger back-lash from european tax payers. So, with the euozone, the big crisis is over. The problems are far from over though, and the unresolved risks in the system mean we could see the crisis re-emerge. However, for investors, it is worthwhile to think of what the market is priced for at the moment. If you think it is priced in crisis mode, then it is surely over-sold. Lorcan Roche Kelly Chief Europe Strategist at Trend Macrolytics, LLC
		FINANCIAL TIMES ECB trims bank debt against which it will lend January 22, 2012 The ECB said the Banque de France, the French arm of the eurosystem of central banks, decided to withdraw the assets "as a precautionary measure" after finding that some of the notes may not comply with its rules. Lorcan Roche Kelly, European strategist for Trend Macrolytics, said the decision was embarrassing for the ECB and Banque, but that it was unlikely to hurt the banking system. "The ECB wants to get money into markets so badly that if it turned out that an instrument that wasn’t supposed to be used [as collateral] got used, I don’t think we would ever find out about it," he said.
		CNBC The Kudlow Report Friday, December 20, 2011
		FINANCIAL TIMES French banks cash in January 10, 2012 ...the piling up of collateral ought to ease worries about France's banks being squeezed by a liquidity crunch, as Lorcan Roche Kelly at Trend Macro points out. Far from running out of collateral, the French banks now appear to have an almost unlimited line of credit at the ECB. This is not only of interest to their investors. French banks slashed assets as financing became harder. A big French role in trade finance spread the effects round the world.
		FT ALPHAVILLE Decommissioning Dexia -- a collateral story January 9, 2012 ...here's the "assets" side of the latest financial statement of the National Bank of Belgium. Hat-tip to Lorcan Roche Kelly, TrendMacro Europe strategist... As Lorcan points out, there's another interesting sign of stressed funding on the assets side -- foreign currency claims rise to EUR 7,896bn from EUR 354m the previous month, a sign of the ECB's dollar liquidity operations (which were extended to longer maturities around this time). Dexia was an international balance sheet monster as well...
		FT THE WORLD A yet more cunning plan: IMF/Italy bail-out part 327 November 29, 2011 So the ECB and the Bundesbank don't want to bail-out Italy via the IMF. But could national eurozone central banks do it? They already lend to their own commercial banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programmes and there is nothing to stop the IMF accepting loans from any central bank. Could this be behind Jean-Claude Juncker and Olli Rehn's cryptic comments on Tuesday night? ...Hat tip for this idea for the redoubtable Lorcan Roche Kelly of Trend Macrolytics, who knows more about the ELA and central bank financing than anyone alive.
		BUSINESS INSIDER Here's The REAL Reason Germany Doesn't Want The ECB To Print Money November 26, 2011 ...the REAL reason for German opposition to central bank action... as explained by strategist Lorcan Roche Kelly in a note for Trend Macro, is that early last decade, Germany embarked on a policy called Agenda 2010, which basically offered German workers a trade: They'd get very little real wage growth, but in exchange, unemployment would be kept low. And indeed, Germany has had the lowest wage growth in Europe...  And as you know (or may not know) Germany has kept up its end of the bargain, keeping unemployment at remarkably low levels, even as other Western nations has seen their numbers rise. So any inflation caused by money printing would mean a real wage cut for German workers, and a violation of the deal.
		BUSINESS INSIDER Okay, What The Heck Just Happened Today? November 9 2011 We talked to our friend Lorcan Roche Kelly an analyst in Ireland with Trend Macro, who knows the European debt market better than anyone else. Basically he described it as a case of the ECB refusing to blink when everyone expected them to. Everyone's been getting used to the ECB doing bond buying, and though they may have bought, like 200 million EUR of Italian BTPs (bonds) today, they basically stunned everyone, staying out of the market. This might have been a message to Silvio, telling him to get out. It's also a way for Mario Draghi, who has been vocal in his belief that fiscal measures heretofore haven't been enough, to put some muscle behind his words. Bondholders across Europe have now been put on notice. So what happens next in Italy? The entire market is still waiting for the ECB to blink, and do the forceful yield suppression everyone expects. If Italy can make it through the next few days, Monday could be huge, as 50%+ chance Berlusconi is out by then, with him getting replaced by the well-respected Mario Monti. if he's in by Monday, then the ECB might do some serious monetization. Maybe. If not, we could be looking at 10%+ yields.
		BUSINESS & FINANCE Euro pillar shakes September 2011 Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist for the hedge fund Trend Macro, says that ultimately the most important test any new EFSF has to pass, is that it is effective. "What needs to be done is to make the EFSF look like a great investment," says Roche Kelly. "The bond market still has dreams of a risk-free investment. With an insurance programme, investors are not sure if it is risk-free or not. Then that begs the question whether or not it is going to be effective and that is exactly what we need now, so it isn’t about size, it is about being effective." Then of course, there is the not inconsiderable problem of Greece. The commission leaked a report on October 18, which estimated that the final tally for bailing out the country could reach €500bn. Haircuts of up to 50% are needed to make the debt level sustainable. "The reason for private sector involvement of up to 50%, is that it gives EU authorities the excuse to say that Greek bondholders have taken the pain, so they can now pump in structural funds over the longer term without saying that it is a bailout. The long-term solution is that Greece will be a protectorate of the EU for the next number of years," says Roche Kelly... Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist with the hedge fund, Trend Macro, says that all this move [banning short selling] achieves is to remove a functioning part of the market. "I can see politically why they did it, but if they are trying to curb market excesses, then it will not make any difference. "Anyway, I am not sure how a CDS would be triggered outside a chaotic default. The private sector involvement in the Greek debt writedown is not triggering a default, according the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). In fact, ISDA is not sure, under its own rules, how a default would be triggered."
		USA TODAY Growing recession fears clobber stocks September 23, 2011 The sharp jump in fear among investors, an ongoing theme that has accompanied some of the most violent price swings in stock market history in recent weeks, is also part of the problem, says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. He says the level of fear has been rising and has been a big negative for the U.S. economy, which is built on the confidence of consumers, whose spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of the nation's economic activity. "Fear has been eating away at the foundation of the economy for a while, like the way termites eat away at the walls of a home, one bite at a time — and then one bite and the whole wall comes down," he says. But Luskin says fear of a severe recession may be misguided, unless worst-case fears materialize. "Stocks are so cheap — unless you want to argue that an asteroid will hit Earth or there will be a Lehman-style systemic banking crisis, this is an either-or trade," he says. "Either those bad things happen or they don't, and this is a good time to buy."
		REASON TV If John Galt is Bill Gates, Who is Paul Krugman? Thursday, September 22, 2011