THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Newt's Bain Opportunism Is Mitt's Opportunity Tuesday, January 17, 2012 This is Romney's moment to distinguish himself by making a moral case for free-market capitalism. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Paul Krugman: The Prophet of Socialism June 13, 2011 A prophet who has been consistently wrong. MORE>>
		FOR YOUR INFORMATION TrendMacro Announces New Chief Europe Strategist Wednesday, June 1, 2011 Ireland-based Lorcan Roche Kelly to cover European markets, policy, politics MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Professors to Koch Brothers: Take Your Green Back Wednesday, May 25, 2011 No one ever questions George Soros money, but apparently this $1.5 million gift violates academic freedom. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Remembering the Real Ayn Rand Thursday, April 14, 2011 The author of "Atlas Shrugged" was an individualist, not a conservative, and she knew big business was as much a threat to capitalism as government bureaucrats. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Oil Prices Won't Kill the Recovery Tuesday, March 29, 2011 The 30% price spike to date isn't big enough to be a major shock, and the economy is less vulnerable today than it was in the expansion's late stages in 2008. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL The Trade and Tax Doomsday Clocks Monday, October 4, 2010 Tariffs against China and failure to extend the Bush-era tax cuts would repeat the worst mistakes of the Great Depression. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Keep Taxes Low, Mr. President Friday, September 10, 2010 It's the one thing Obama can do to help economy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE We're Not Going to Double Dip Friday, August 27, 2010 Gold's price and corporate earnings should inspire confidence. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE In Search of Certainty at the Fed Thursday, August 26, 2009 Our monetary PhDs need to get on the same page about policy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Case Against Gold Falls Apart Friday, July 23, 2010 Stocks are no match for gold at the moment. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Gold Remains Great for the Long Haul Friday, July 16, 2010 The reasons that gold bears use just don't add up. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Why This Isn't Like 1938 -- At Least Not Yet Friday, July 9, 2010 Stock prices show we've dodged another depression, but toxic, antibusiness rhetoric and policy errors like the Dodd-Frank bill are hurting the still-fragile recovery. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Don't Worry About the Economy Friday, July 9, 2010 The talk of a double-dip recession doesn't add up. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE What Was Scott Brown Thinking? Friday, May 21, 2010 His vote allows the financial reform bill to move through Congress. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Even at These Prices, Keep Hold of Your Gold Friday, May 14, 2010 The price of gold has been soaring, but don't sell just yet. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Goldman Case: What You Need to Know Friday, April 23, 2010 The SEC has only one bone to pick with the Wall Street giant. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL George W. Bush's 2010 Tax Miracle Thursday, April 15, 2010 Mass conversions to Roth IRAs could produce a gusher of revenue, reducing our budget deficit by as much as half next year. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Congress Hates Capitalism, It Seems Friday, April 2, 2010 CEOs are called to task for following the new health care law. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Health Care 'Change' Will Leave You With Less Friday, March 26, 2010 Reform is bringing new taxes that could kill the economy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Send a Thank You Card to Tim Geithner Friday, February 12, 2010 One year ago this week he saved the world by doing nothing. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Republicans and the Populist Temptation Tuesday, February 9, 2010 The reaction to Scott Brown's victory has been a lurch toward antibusiness rhetoric. The stock market doesn't like it. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Why Taxing Stock Trades Is a Really Bad Idea Wednesday, January 6, 2010 Everyday investors shouldn't be punished for a subprime fiasco fueled by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. MORE>>
		ACTIVE TRADER The Unseen Danger of Leveraged ETFs Thursday, December 17, 2009 How these rapidly selling products can crush you over time. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE $300,000 of Gold, in the Palm of My Hand Friday, November 6, 2009  A trip to the Federal Reserve reaffirms my belief in owning gold. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Weak Dollar, Oblivious Treasury? Tuesday, October 20 2009 Conservatives can take comfort in the fact that the Treasury Department ’s approach to the dollar is both realistic and sensible. MORE>>
		REASON MAGAZINE Inflation Returns October, 2009 The Fed fears unemployment more than rising prices. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL In Defense of "Flash" Trading Thursday, August 27, 2009 It's no different from selling your house without a real estate listing. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Whole Foods-Style Health Care Friday, August 21. 2009 How the supermarket's plan trumps Obama's ideas. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Must-Read Thriller of the Summer Friday, August 14. 2009 A new book reveals the Fed's moves during the financial crisis. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Can the Fed Identify Bubbles Before They Happen? Wednesday, July 29, 2009 The New York Fed’s president says it can. If only it were that easy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE This Health-Care Reform Might Tax Us to Death Friday, July 17, 2009 The current health-care reform plan will be financially onerous to everyone. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Acclaimed Economist Says Recession Is Over Friday, May 15, 2009 Peak unemployment claims show the recession may be over. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE TARP Looking More Criminal by the Minute Friday, April 24, 2009 The issue of TARP corruption may now extend from corporate CEOs and federal regulators to New York’s attorney general. MORE>>
		HARD ASSET INVESTOR The Upside-Down Bell Curve Friday, April 24, 2009 HardAssetsInvestor.com caught up with Don to get his take on the outlook for gold and inflation. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Next Steps Monday, January 26, 2009 What, if anything, we should be doing to buttress the financial system. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Regrets? Monday, December 22, 2008 TARP, reconsidered. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW Death by Rescue Monday, November 17, 2008 How botched bailouts doomed companies that didn't need to fail. MORE>>
		KRUGMAN TRUTH SQUAD Krugman's Posthumous Nobel Tuesday, October 14, 2008 This year's prize in economics goes to an economist who died a decade ago. MORE>>

		CNBC The Kudlow Report Friday, January 27, 2012
		CNBC The Kudlow Report Tuesday, January 24, 2012
		BUSINESS INSIDER 6 TOP ECONOMISTS ANSWER: Is The Euro Crisis Over? And If Not, What's Next? January 23, 2012 The existential crisis for the euro is largely over -- baring any political shocks, for example, like Marine LePen winning the next French presidentail election (highly unlikely). However, just because the existential crisis is over, does not mean there will be no more systemic risks coming from the euro area. The banking system is going to continue on life support from the ECB. The sovereign debt issue has gone nowhere. Each new round of austerity risks a stronger back-lash from european tax payers. So, with the euozone, the big crisis is over. The problems are far from over though, and the unresolved risks in the system mean we could see the crisis re-emerge. However, for investors, it is worthwhile to think of what the market is priced for at the moment. If you think it is priced in crisis mode, then it is surely over-sold. Lorcan Roche Kelly Chief Europe Strategist at Trend Macrolytics, LLC
		FINANCIAL TIMES ECB trims bank debt against which it will lend January 22, 2012 The ECB said the Banque de France, the French arm of the eurosystem of central banks, decided to withdraw the assets "as a precautionary measure" after finding that some of the notes may not comply with its rules. Lorcan Roche Kelly, European strategist for Trend Macrolytics, said the decision was embarrassing for the ECB and Banque, but that it was unlikely to hurt the banking system. "The ECB wants to get money into markets so badly that if it turned out that an instrument that wasn’t supposed to be used [as collateral] got used, I don’t think we would ever find out about it," he said.
		CNBC The Kudlow Report Friday, December 20, 2011
		FINANCIAL TIMES French banks cash in January 10, 2012 ...the piling up of collateral ought to ease worries about France's banks being squeezed by a liquidity crunch, as Lorcan Roche Kelly at Trend Macro points out. Far from running out of collateral, the French banks now appear to have an almost unlimited line of credit at the ECB. This is not only of interest to their investors. French banks slashed assets as financing became harder. A big French role in trade finance spread the effects round the world.
		FT ALPHAVILLE Decommissioning Dexia -- a collateral story January 9, 2012 ...here's the "assets" side of the latest financial statement of the National Bank of Belgium. Hat-tip to Lorcan Roche Kelly, TrendMacro Europe strategist... As Lorcan points out, there's another interesting sign of stressed funding on the assets side -- foreign currency claims rise to EUR 7,896bn from EUR 354m the previous month, a sign of the ECB's dollar liquidity operations (which were extended to longer maturities around this time). Dexia was an international balance sheet monster as well...
		FT THE WORLD A yet more cunning plan: IMF/Italy bail-out part 327 November 29, 2011 So the ECB and the Bundesbank don't want to bail-out Italy via the IMF. But could national eurozone central banks do it? They already lend to their own commercial banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance programmes and there is nothing to stop the IMF accepting loans from any central bank. Could this be behind Jean-Claude Juncker and Olli Rehn's cryptic comments on Tuesday night? ...Hat tip for this idea for the redoubtable Lorcan Roche Kelly of Trend Macrolytics, who knows more about the ELA and central bank financing than anyone alive.
		BUSINESS INSIDER Here's The REAL Reason Germany Doesn't Want The ECB To Print Money November 26, 2011 ...the REAL reason for German opposition to central bank action... as explained by strategist Lorcan Roche Kelly in a note for Trend Macro, is that early last decade, Germany embarked on a policy called Agenda 2010, which basically offered German workers a trade: They'd get very little real wage growth, but in exchange, unemployment would be kept low. And indeed, Germany has had the lowest wage growth in Europe...  And as you know (or may not know) Germany has kept up its end of the bargain, keeping unemployment at remarkably low levels, even as other Western nations has seen their numbers rise. So any inflation caused by money printing would mean a real wage cut for German workers, and a violation of the deal.
		BUSINESS INSIDER Okay, What The Heck Just Happened Today? November 9 2011 We talked to our friend Lorcan Roche Kelly an analyst in Ireland with Trend Macro, who knows the European debt market better than anyone else. Basically he described it as a case of the ECB refusing to blink when everyone expected them to. Everyone's been getting used to the ECB doing bond buying, and though they may have bought, like 200 million EUR of Italian BTPs (bonds) today, they basically stunned everyone, staying out of the market. This might have been a message to Silvio, telling him to get out. It's also a way for Mario Draghi, who has been vocal in his belief that fiscal measures heretofore haven't been enough, to put some muscle behind his words. Bondholders across Europe have now been put on notice. So what happens next in Italy? The entire market is still waiting for the ECB to blink, and do the forceful yield suppression everyone expects. If Italy can make it through the next few days, Monday could be huge, as 50%+ chance Berlusconi is out by then, with him getting replaced by the well-respected Mario Monti. if he's in by Monday, then the ECB might do some serious monetization. Maybe. If not, we could be looking at 10%+ yields.
		BUSINESS & FINANCE Euro pillar shakes September 2011 Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist for the hedge fund Trend Macro, says that ultimately the most important test any new EFSF has to pass, is that it is effective. "What needs to be done is to make the EFSF look like a great investment," says Roche Kelly. "The bond market still has dreams of a risk-free investment. With an insurance programme, investors are not sure if it is risk-free or not. Then that begs the question whether or not it is going to be effective and that is exactly what we need now, so it isn’t about size, it is about being effective." Then of course, there is the not inconsiderable problem of Greece. The commission leaked a report on October 18, which estimated that the final tally for bailing out the country could reach €500bn. Haircuts of up to 50% are needed to make the debt level sustainable. "The reason for private sector involvement of up to 50%, is that it gives EU authorities the excuse to say that Greek bondholders have taken the pain, so they can now pump in structural funds over the longer term without saying that it is a bailout. The long-term solution is that Greece will be a protectorate of the EU for the next number of years," says Roche Kelly... Lorcan Roche Kelly, chief Europe strategist with the hedge fund, Trend Macro, says that all this move [banning short selling] achieves is to remove a functioning part of the market. "I can see politically why they did it, but if they are trying to curb market excesses, then it will not make any difference. "Anyway, I am not sure how a CDS would be triggered outside a chaotic default. The private sector involvement in the Greek debt writedown is not triggering a default, according the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). In fact, ISDA is not sure, under its own rules, how a default would be triggered."
		USA TODAY Growing recession fears clobber stocks September 23, 2011 The sharp jump in fear among investors, an ongoing theme that has accompanied some of the most violent price swings in stock market history in recent weeks, is also part of the problem, says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at TrendMacro. He says the level of fear has been rising and has been a big negative for the U.S. economy, which is built on the confidence of consumers, whose spending accounts for nearly two-thirds of the nation's economic activity. "Fear has been eating away at the foundation of the economy for a while, like the way termites eat away at the walls of a home, one bite at a time — and then one bite and the whole wall comes down," he says. But Luskin says fear of a severe recession may be misguided, unless worst-case fears materialize. "Stocks are so cheap — unless you want to argue that an asteroid will hit Earth or there will be a Lehman-style systemic banking crisis, this is an either-or trade," he says. "Either those bad things happen or they don't, and this is a good time to buy."
		REASON TV If John Galt is Bill Gates, Who is Paul Krugman? Thursday, September 22, 2011