ARCHIVES: TREND MACROLYTICS REPORTS
Lorcan Roche Kelly
MACROCOSM
What's Greek for
"Groundhog Day"?
May 15, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly
Failure to form a Greek government means another election, more
volatility, more tail-risk.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the French and
Greek Elections
May 7, 2012
The Greek dog is barking again -- but the euro area caravan will move
on.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May ECB Rate
Decision
May 3, 2012
Mario Draghi gives a supply-side economics lesson to euro area leaders.
MACROCOSM
S&P Sp BBB = ECB
SMP?
April 27, 2012
Spain: ratings down, unemployment up. But this is no crisis, and the ECB
won't act.
POLITICAL PULSE
A French Election
Correction
April 23, 2012
Whether with Hollande or Sarkozy, France will support European
integration and reform.
MACROCOSM
A Spaniard in the
Works
April 11, 2012
Spanish fears take the forefront, but it's just
part of Europe's painful equilibrium.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April ECB
Rate Decision
April 4, 2012
The ECB stands pat -- apparently markets will just have to wait to see
if LTRO worked.
MACROCOSM
Crunch Time for
Reform in Europe
March 28, 2012
The honeymoon is ending for Monti and Rajoy, as labor reforms get
politically difficult.
MACROCOSM
Spanish Flu?
March 16, 2012
Spain is Europe's post-crisis laggard. If reform is sustained, it can
catch up.
MACROCOSM
Unquestionable
Success?
March 9, 2012
The worst thing that can happen to Europe now is that everything goes
perfectly.
MACROCOSM
How Big was the
LTRO, Really?
March 5, 2012
Size matters -- but for central bank liquidity, quality means as much as
quantity.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Second 3-year
LTRO
February 29, 2012
It's official: euro area banks won't be Lehman. Now can they be more
than zombies?
MACROCOSM
LTROphoria
February 27, 2012
3-year LTRO's now a rock star. Wednesday's auction is the difficult
second album.
MACROCOSM
Greece is Saved!
(Again...)
February 21, 2012
Another version of another bail-out. Fortunately,
we don't have to care anymore.
MACROCOSM
Greece
Re-Re-Revisited
February 13, 2012
If Greece could export uncertainty, it would be the richest country in
the world.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB and BOE
February Rate Decisions
February 9, 2012
Now it's up to Europe's banks to bet on themselves with a huge LTRO
uptake at month-end.
POLITICAL PULSE
The French Election
Connection
February 7, 2012
France elects a new president on May 6. Here's
everything markets need to know.
MACROCOSM
S&P Reprise Reprieve
January 17, 2012
Europe's downgrade was an already discounted non-event -- but all the
old issues remain.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January ECB
Rate Decision
January 12, 2012
The ECB has done enough for the moment -- and maybe enough for the
banks.
MACROCOSM
Le Collateral
January 6, 2012
Lorcan Roche Kelly
Altruism or desperation? French banks just listed 8,067 new instruments
with the ECB.
MACROCOSM
Europe's Wall
of Liquidity
December 21, 2011
The risk of a Lehman-like banking crisis for Europe is essentially off the table now.
MACROCOSM
E Pluribus 26
December 12, 2011
It could only happen in Europe -- a summit that strengthens integration
loses the UK.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the ECB
Monetary Policy Decisions
December 8, 2011
The ECB met expectations, but dashed hopes. But spillovers may
mean de facto Fed QE3.
MACROCOSM
Saved by an Acronym
November 30, 2011
Europe's alphabet soup is getting cold. But there's a new recipe
cooking.
MACROCOSM
Europe's New Lenders
of Last Resort
November 29, 2011
Three more national central banks now engage in Emergency Liquidity
Assistance.
MACROCOSM
QE Nein
November 23, 2011
Europe's long-term vision needs a short-term ECB lifeline -- but
prejudice and politics block it.
MACROCOSM
Rome Makes Athens
Look Good
November 10, 2011
Greece moves along the road to political stability, and Italy grudgingly
steps onto it.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November ECB
Rate Decision
November 3, 2011
Draghi starts to unwind Trichet's errors, and keeps Europe's debt safety
net in place.
MACROCOSM
Papandemonium!
November 3, 2011
The Euro area calls Papandreou's referendum bluff. There are limits to
debtor's leverage.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Greek Referendum Surprise,
Volume 2
November 2, 2011
Markets will flail until Europe passes the biggest test yet of its
muddle through crisis strategy.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Greek
Referendum Surprise
November 1, 2011
Deja vu for world markets -- Greece ups the ante of panic once again.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Europe Summit
October 27, 2011
A 50% Greek default -- and
the only contagion is a celebration in global stock markets.
MACROCOSM
Agree to Agree... on
Wednesday
October 24, 2011
Europe fired blanks at the weekend's summit. One more chance for a real
shootout.
MACROCOSM
Six Days to What?
October 17, 2011
A resolution to the Greek crisis is a key coming catalyst, but Europe's
woes will remain.
MACROCOSM
Stress Test for
Europe's Banks, and Its Politics
October 11, 2011
Dexia's failure clarifies Europe's mind on banks -- now we wait for
Slovakia's EFSF vote.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On ECB and BOE
October Rate Decisions
October 6, 2011
Massive QE for the UK, and continued growth-killing rates for the Euro
area.
MACROCOSM
Europe Fails, US Stocks Flail
October 4, 2011
The stench of systemic risk from Europe drives stocks to generational
value levels
MACROCOSM
Greece: Down to the
Wire
September 20, 2011
It's hard bargaining as usual, but default will be deferred until the
new EFSF is ready to go.
MACROCOSM
Too Few Good Men
September 9, 2011
Trichet almost admits his mistake, Obama repeats his, and Bernanke
maintains course.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the German Court
EFSF Decision
September 7, 2011
The critical bailout tool survives constitutional challenge with only
minor damage.
MACROCOSM
CHooF!
September 6, 2011
The Swiss must expect more euro weakness -- whether or not political
solutions are found.
MACROCOSM
From the Vacation to
the Frying Pan
August 30, 2011
The second Greek bailout flounders, and politics puts the new EFSF at
risk.
MACROCOSM
Two-Tier Europe is
Born
August 17, 2011
Merkel and Sarkozy have re-imagined the Euro area, and a stable solution
to crisis.
MACROCOSM
New Battle, Old Weapons?
August 12, 2011
Europe bans short-selling
again, but that does not mean a repeat of 2008.
MACROCOSM
Europe, Living on the Edge
August 1, 2011
The ECB is paralyzed, the
EFSF is sidelined, and tiny Cyprus reveals the system's fragility.
MACROCOSM
Whatever It Takes
July 22, 2011
It's default for Greece, yet the Euro authorities have successfully
arrested contagion.
INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Understanding ELA:
Emergency Liquidity Assistance
July 15, 2011
How the ECB lets national central banks of the Eurosystem do the dirty
work.
MACROCOSM
The Sack of Rome
July 13, 2011
Europe stumbles into a
speculative attack on the biggest of the PIIGS -- and survives.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Europe's July
Rate Decisions
July 7, 2011
The new contagion? Inflation monomania drives the core to impose risks
on the periphery.
MACROCOSM
Dependence Day
July 5, 2011
Over the weekend, as the US
celebrates independence, Greece falls under EU stewardship.
MACROCOSM
Confidence Game in Greece
June 23, 2011
Papandreou wins his
confidence vote -- but there's no confidence Greece won't still default.
MACROCOSM
Black Wednesday in Greece
June 16, 2011
With government in chaos,
the next step is a bank run -- then default.
MACROCOSM
Greece: Suicide, Not Murder
June 7, 2011
Ironically, a Greek default may strengthen the rest of the Eurozone.
TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June ECB Rate
Decision
June 9, 2011
Trichet is poised to compound the ECB's suicidal policy error with a
July rate hike.
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